Analysis
by Dr Raghbendra Jha, Professor and Executive Director,
Australia South Asia Research Centre, Australian National University
The world economy is still reeling from the impacts of
a severe financial crisis. Hundreds of billions, if not trillions, of dollars
in capital value have been lost in stock markets. Inter-bank credit has
almost frozen up, and even with falling central bank interest rates, actual
costs of borrowing have gone up. Unemployment has been rising and major
world economies are in or close to recession.
Attempts are being made to address this crisis through
a variety of policy initiatives, primarily by the injection of vast amounts
of public funds into financial institutions and the provision of sovereign
guarantees on bank accounts.
This article explores how the Indian economy is expected
to fare in the short-term and how Indian policymakers have responded to
the crisis.
So far the global financial crisis has had three major
impacts on the Indian economy: (i) the quantum of liquidity available during
the first half of financial year (FY) 2008-09 is about a third lower than
during the first half of FY 2007-08; (ii) with slackening external demand,
export growth is expected to slow; and (iii) foreign institutional investors
have withdrawn from Indian stock markets, leading to sharp falls in key
indices.
The immediate impact of the crisis on Indian economic growth
is likely to be muted. From a growth accounting perspective Indian economic
growth, fuelled by higher savings and investment (now over 35% and 36% of
GDP respectively),the demographic dividend of a younger (median age 24.9
years), more educated labour force and accelerated total factor productivity
growth, has been rising and becoming more stable for the past 25 years.
For the past three years the economy has grown at 9%, giving the Indian
economy considerable momentum. Second, during the current financial year
trade growth has been impressive with exports rising 35.1% in dollar terms
and imports 37.7% during April-August 2008. Investment has been buoyant
and foreign direct investment during 2008-09 is expected to reach US$35
billion.
Indian banks have strong balance sheets, are well-capitalised
and well regulated. The capital adequacy ratio of every Indian bank is well
above Basel norms and those stipulated by the RBI. Not one Indian bank has
had to be rescued in the aftermath of the crisis. India has a long history
of working with public sector banks and in engineering bank rescues.
India’s growth rate will slow in 2008-09. Growth
during the quarter ending June 2008 was 7.9%. The current consensus for
fiscal year 2008-09 is 7.5% to 8%.
Principal reasons for this only modest drop in economic
growth include: (i) a large and diversified consumption base for the Indian
economy; (ii) India’s trade to GDP ratio is much smaller than that
of, say, China; (iii) Indian financial markets are still relatively insulated
from global financial markets. India has a healthy external balance, with
high foreign exchange reserves, low ratio of short term external debt to
GDP and less than complete capital account convertibility.
Nevertheless, there will be a significant slowdown compared
to recent experience. The slower growth will be accompanied by reduced employment
growth and slower poverty reduction.
Indian policymakers have responded with measures to enhance
liquidity – primarily by reducing borrowing costs by lowering the
cash reserve ratio and the repo rate – and enhancing confidence. Bank
guarantees, beyond those that already exist, have been deemed unnecessary.
In 2009-10, if the world economy recovers, India can grow
at 9% or more. If the world economy remains in recession forecasts of Indian
growth rates are harder to make.
Links:
-
The 2008 Lowy Lecture on 3 December will be delivered
by Ian Macfarlane AC , former Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia
and inaugural Chairman of the Council of Financial Regulators. It
will address the subject of Australia and the International Financial
Crises: see
http://www.lowyinstitute.org
by Eve Warburton, Program Officer, Aceh Research
Training Institute and Australian Youth Ambassador for Development (arti.aceh@yahoo.com)
Already isolated from the rest of Indonesia and the international
community by thirty years of civil war, Aceh’s universities were hard-hit
by the tsunami of 26 December 2004 because many academics lived in the worst-affected
areas of Banda Aceh. As part of the international response to the crisis,
the Aceh Research Training Institute (ARTI) was established by a consortium
of nine Australian universities and a number of partner universities in Indonesia.
The project is a three-year commitment as part of AusAID’s Aceh Rehabilitation
Program (ARP).
ARTI’s programs aim to contribute to the development
of a vibrant research community through training courses, research opportunities
and the fostering of new research networks in Aceh and beyond. The institute’s
first director, Dr Laura Yoder, was responsible for the design, coordination
and implementation of ARTI programs from their inception in 2007. In 2008
Prof Harold Crouch took over the director’s role and Eve Warburton,
an Australian Youth Ambassador for Development, joined ARTI as Programs Officer.
The Australian members of the team are capably assisted by Melizar, the project’s
Office Manager.
ARTI is focused on expanding the quality and accessibility
of locally produced research, working in partnership with Universitas Syiah
Kuala and other local universities. ARTI’s principal objective is to
build the capacity of individual researchers to undertake high-quality, relevant
social science research. Training consists of three levels of selective entry
courses in research methodologies. To date ARTI has trained over 400 local
academics, NGO staff and civil servants in basic social science research methodologies.
From this pool, over 80 of the most promising researchers
have gone on to attend level 2 courses, which consist of more in-depth methodological
training in specific areas of research that are particularly relevant in the
Acehnese context. So far, ARTI has run courses on Islam and Law (Dr Arskal
Salim), Gender in Society (Prof. Virginia Hooker), Poverty and Livelihoods
(Dr John Maxwell) and Environment, Development and Institutions (Dr Suraya
Affif). As part of their studies, level two participants produce a research
proposal linked to the theme of the course, the best of which are accepted
into the third and final level, in which participants receive funding to conduct
an extended research project under the supervision of Indonesian and international
academics.
So far 17 Acehnese researchers have received ARTI funding
for their research proposals and are now applying the analytical and methodological
skills they have acquired in their own fieldwork. They will soon be writing
up their findings as journal articles. The researchers are also encouraged
to attend conferences and seminars, and to share their research findings in
local forums.
ARTI’s courses are also intended to create opportunities
to share resources and expand personal networks by bringing together Indonesian
and international academics to work in partnership with researchers in Aceh.
In addition to the training program, ARTI offers travel grants to Indonesian
and international PhD students, giving them the opportunity not only to conduct
their field work, but to contribute to courses, share resources and network
with local researchers and course participants. As a result, one of the most
important and sustainable outcomes of the project has been the professional
and personal contacts that Acehnese participants have made with guest lecturers,
supervisors and PhD students from around Indonesia and the world. These networks
provide access to people, books, articles, ideas and information in a context
where technological and institutional limitations prevent ready access to
such resources, and lay the basis for the development of a sustainable, vibrant
research community in Aceh.
Links:
Profile
This month we profile Colin Brown, Professor, School of
Social Sciences and Asian Languages, Curtin University of Technology Colin.Brown@curtin.edu.au
Q:When did you become interested in Asia and why?
A: I’d like to be able to say that it was because of a calculated
assessment of where Australia’s national interests lay, or even a sense
of personal commitment to the region. However, such was not the case. I was
at the University of Queensland studying for a degree in Economics (you can
see how misspent my youth was), with a minor in history. After some standard
British/European units ? ‘Britain, 1485-1815’ remains etched in
my mind ? I decided I wanted something different. I asked around fellow history
students about which lecturers were interesting. Several people mentioned
Chris Penders, so I decided I would enrol for whatever he was teaching. It
turned out to be Southeast Asian history. Chris was indeed a very good lecturer,
and got me really interested in what he was teaching, and in particular Indonesia.
I ended up doing my PhD on Indonesian history under his supervision. I then
got my first lecturing job in the School of Modern Asian Studies at Griffith,
and worked with people like Colin Mackerras. I don’t think we had mentors
in those days (modesty prevents me from saying exactly when those days were),
but if we did, Colin would have been mine.
Q: What are your current preoccupations? And how do
these fit into the contemporary scene?
A: Indonesia is still central to my professional (and personal) interests.
For the past couple of years I have been working on the history of Indonesian
sport, a subject which bemuses some of my colleagues but which provides rich
insights into the way contemporary Indonesian society has evolved. Gender,
ethnicity, religion, history, politics, popular culture and class are all
reflected in the sports people play, and the ways they play them. There are
growing bodies of knowledge about the roles of sport in places like India
and China, but very little has been written about Indonesia. I suspect that
part of the reason for this is that the only sport which Indonesians play
at the highest international level – badminton – is almost unknown
here, and in the US and the Netherlands, the places where scholarship on Indonesia
is the richest. Now if things had gone differently in 1824, when the British
and Dutch signed an agreement dividing up their colonial possessions in Southeast
Asia and Indonesians had ended up playing cricket . . . !
Q: What are your hopes for Asian studies in Australia?
A: That one day we will get to the point where no one will feel the
need to ask this question, because the strength, vitality and centrality of
Asian Studies will be so great as to render it unnecessary. But that is not
going to happen any time soon. Indeed, I am probably more pessimistic today,
at least about the Indonesia side of Asian Studies, than I have been for a
long time. There are certainly some very talented early and mid career people
in the business, but outside the major centres I worry about where they will
find jobs in the longer term, and who they will teach.
The one bright hope for Indonesian studies is the Australian
Consortium for In Country Indonesian Studies (ACICIS), led by David Hill at
Murdoch University. ACICIS currently sends around 35 students to study in
Indonesia each semester, a figure which is both shamefully low (given the
significance of Indonesia to Australia’s present and future) and gratifyingly
large (given the external circumstances ACICIS faces). Probably the most significant
factor limiting student participation in programs like ACICIS is the prevailing
negative public perception of Indonesia, which is also reflected in universities.
‘Risk management’ is the growth industry in universities these
days. It is, I know, an unfortunately necessary part of what institutions
must do in the responsible exercise of their duty of care to students and
staff. But I do wish that more universities sought input from staff with Indonesian
experience and expertise before making decisions about limiting (or even banning)
travel to the country.
Links:
- The Australian Learning and Teaching Council (ALTC, formerly known
as the Carrick Institute) has just announced that the Australian Consortium
for In Country Indonesian Studies (ACICIS) will receive a 2008 Australian
Award for University Teaching as a Program that Enhances Learning. See
http://www.acicis.murdoch.edu.au/hi/altc.html
Student of the month
When Jo-Anne Gilbert borrowed the book Wild
Swans, by Jung Chang, from a Townsville Library, she didn’t realise
the impact that it would have on her life. The personal story of life in China
and the turmoil of the Cultural Revolution fuelled a curiosity to learn more
about how such an event could happen in Jo-Anne’s lifetime. She soon
ran out of books in Townsville on the topic. When Jo-Anne moved to Brisbane
with her husband and children she was able to indulge her curiosity about
China by enrolling in an Asian Studies degree at Griffith University and learning
Mandarin. She made her first visit to China in 2003 as part of a field study;
it was also her first overseas trip. She found China a vibrant and exciting
place, and welcomes every chance to return.
China’s anti-satellite test on 11 January 2007 alerted
Jo-Anne to a little known field of study in Australia, which she pursued,
subsequently completing an honours degree in international relations on the
history of the Sino-US space relationship. Jo-Anne is now enrolled as a PhD
student at the Griffith Asia Institute. Her research looks at the association
between the United States and technology and the impact this has on foreign
policy, in particular considering the political and security implications
of space programs that are evolving in the region. Many countries in Asia
have dynamic space programs, particularly India, Japan and China. These have
political implications in a world where space technology has, until recently,
been dominated by the United States. Next year Jo-Anne will attend the Space
Policy Institute at George Washington University, Washington D.C. as a visiting
scholar. She feels fortunate and proud to be involved with the Griffith Asia
Institute, which has a collegial and dynamic atmosphere, and where she is
surrounded by excellent scholars with diverse and engaging interests. http://www.griffith.edu.au/business/griffith-asia-institute/staff/ms-jo-gilbert
Website of the month
http://hahn.zenfolio.com/f320124069
In this website, Thomas H. Hahn, of Cornell University, presents
galleries of photographs covering various aspects of the Cultural Revolution
in China (1966-1976). Much has been written about this traumatic segment of
China's recent past, but until now the subject has not been well covered visually.
Recent publication of interest
On 9 September, PM Rudd addressed the RSL National Congress, saying Australia
needed a new defence approach that brought ‘together all the elements
of traditional and non-traditional security capabilities that will ensure
Australia responds to the full breadth of the threat spectrum that now confront
us’. He listed increased militarisation in the region, the threat of
terrorism, energy security and the impact of climate change on long-term food
and water security. See http://www.pm.gov.au/media/Speech/2008/speech_0468.cfm
On a related subject Rory Medcalf of the Lowy Institute investigates ways
Australia might contribute to nuclear security in Asia and globally. For his
paper, Nuclear security: what else can Australia do? See http://www.lowyinstitute.org.
Did you know?
Launched at the Art Gallery of New South Wales in 1997, the
Arts of Asia is a year-long lecture series which draws on the expertise of
Asian art scholars and curators, both nationally and internationally, including
the staff of the Art Gallery’s Asian art department and many ASAA members.
In 2009, the theme of the lectures, which take place on Tuesdays from
1pm to 2pm is Decoding Dress. The lectures will examine
the political and social forces influencing such modern developments as the
Nehru jacket and the Mao suit. To register online go to www.artgallery.nsw.gov.au/events/courses
Diary dates
THE CRICKET AND THE DRAGON ANIMALS IN ASIAN ART,
17 October 2008 to 15 March 2009, Melbourne. Aimed at children of
all ages, this exhibition explores images of animals from the National Gallery
of Victoria’s Asian Collection. The exhibition covers all media and
a wide time period. http://www.ngv.vic.gov.au/cricketandthedragon/index.html
A SECRET HISTORY OF BLUE AND WHITE, exhibition, 28
November to 1 February 2009, Gosford. This exhibition highlights
the diversity and strength of Australian ceramics and positions it within
European and Asian ceramic histories. It has been developed by Asialink and
the Jam Factory, Adelaide and is supported by the Australian Government. 28
November 2008 - 1 February 2009, Gosford Regional Gallery: http://www.gosfordregionalgallery.com/
THE TALE OF GENJI – film, 29 November, Sydney.
This 1951 film directed by Yoshimura reinterprets the classic 11th century
Japanese novel by Lady Murasaki (considered the world’s first novel).
Genji, the son of the emperor, has gained renown among the nobility of Kyoto
for his charm and good looks, yet he cannot stop himself from pursuing a forbidden
object of desire: his father’s young and beautiful bride. Newly struck,
imported 35mm print courtesy of the Japan Foundation.
GLOBALISING RELIGIONS AND CULTURES IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC,
1-5 December 2008, Adelaide. This conference is the 2008 Signature
Event for the Asia-Pacific Futures Research Network. With religion and culture
as the key themes, the conference covers areas central to understanding the
current state, diffusion and evolution of religious beliefs in the Asia-Pacific
as well as their cultural and other consequences. In addition to its academic
conference, the Event features three major public forums, link-ups with Australian
media, side events and tours. The culminating event, the conference banquet,
will be held under the direction of one of Australia’s most famous chefs,
Simon Bryant. Contact: sigevent08@adelaide.edu.au
or go to at http://www.adelaide.edu.au/sigevent08/
ISLAM AND SECULARISM IN MALAYSIA, workshop, 4 December,
Canberra. This workshop includes speakers Prof. Andrew Willford (Cornell),
Dr Yeoh Seng Guan (Monash-Malaysia), Dr Farish Noor (NTU, Singapore) and a
screening of short films relating to Islam and secularism in Malaysia. For
more information, contact Dr Gaik Cheng Khoo gaikcheng.khoo@anu.edu.au
AUSTRALIA'S OPEN INVESTMENT FUTURE, symposium, 4
December, Melbourne. This symposium will look at the Australian investment
climate, motivations behind foreign investment, the players seeking to invest,
their objectives and the barriers they face. It is organised by the Institute
of Public Affairs and co-sponsored by the Victorian Division of the Institute
of International Affairs, the Australian APEC Study Centre at Monash University
and the Melbourne APEC Finance Centre. 4 December, 9.00am - 5.00pm, Grand
Hyatt, 123 Collins Street, Melbourne. $110 inc GST for APEC Centre / MAFC
friends - quote 'MAFC' on the registration form. Contact: Institute of Public
Affairs - (03) 9600 47477 www.ipa.org.au
BEHIND FORGOTTEN EYES, film, 5 December, Sydney.
During World War II, the Japanese Imperial Army forced more than 200,000 Korean
women into sexual slavery. Narrated by Lost's Yunjin Kim, this film investigates
the enduring legacy of their story. 5 December, 6.30pm, Chauvel Cinemas, Paddington
Town Hall, see: www.hraff.org.au
MALAYSIA AND SINGAPORE IN THE NEW MILLENNIUM: Contesting
Old Paradigms, 5-6 December, Canberra. A conference on Islam, secularism,
2008 elections, gender, ethnic politics, migrant labor, civil society, bilateral/regional
relations, biography/ autobiography, terrorism, human rights. Convenors: Lily
Zubaidah Rahim L.Rahm@usyd.edu.au; John Funston jfunston@pcug.org.au.
For further information contact Ms Sue Mills sue.mills@anu.edu.au
http://www.une.edu.au/malaysiasoc
A NEW TRADE POLICY FOR AUSTRALIA. The China Oration
and dinner, 8 December, Melbourne. The China Oration is the Australia
China Business Council’s premier event of the year. The Minister for
Trade, the Hon Simon Crean, will deliver this year’s oration, in which
he will examine the future on Australia’s export capacity, international
competitiveness, trade policy and trade development programs and services.
Monday 8 December, 6.30 pm for 7.00 pm start Clarendon Ballroom, The Langham
Hotel, One Southgate Avenue, Southbank. $125 members; $150 non-members; $1,200
corporate table (of 10) (incl. GST). RSVP with payment by 1 December: acbcvic@acbc.com.au
GENJI - THE WORLD OF THE SHINING PRINCE, 12 December
2008 to 22 February 2009, Sydney. 2008 marks the 1000th anniversary
of Japan’s oldest novel, The Tale of Genji, written by the court-lady
Murasaki Shikibu. Since the 12th century, the 54 chapters of the tale have
inspired Japanese artists to visualise the fascinating world of the story’s
main character the Shining Prince (Hikaru Genji) in countless hand scrolls,
folding screens, hanging scrolls and albums. Painted mostly by artists of
the Kano, Tosa and Sumiyoshi schools, these pictures (Genji-e) reflect the
refined aesthetics of the courtly tradition. This exhibition at the Asian
Gallery of the Art Gallery of NSW features 70 works drawn from the Gallery’s
collection as well as loans from other Australian major public and private
collections of Japanese art. See http://www.artgallery.nsw.gov.au/exhibitions/coming/genji
SHAKUHACHI PERFORMANCE CONCERT, 13 December, Melbourne.
This inaugural Shakuhachi Performance Concert presents winning compositions
from USA, Australia and Japan performed by Australia's leading Shakuhachi
masters and instrumentalists. TIME: 3.30pm VENUE: Melba Hall, University of
Melbourne. Book online at www.shakuhachichambermusic.net
or by calling 9739-7340 (reserved seating)
THE 18TH NEW ZEALAND ASIAN STUDIES SOCIETY INTERNATIONAL
CONFERENCE 2009, Wellington, 6-8 July, 2009. This will be an open,
multidisciplinary conference. Participants are invited to submit panel or
paper proposals presenting original research on any Asia-related topic. For
more information, please the see conference website: http://www.nzasia.org.nz/conference.html
Paper abstracts due by 15 March 2009 to the chair
of the organising committee: stephen.epstein@vuw.ac.nz
MAJU BERSAMA The Australian Society of Indonesian
Language Educators (ASILE) Biennial Conference, Sydney, 14-15 July, 2009.
ASILE is now calling for expressions of interest for papers and workshops
at the 2009 conference. This is an excellent opportunity to contribute to
and participate in a conference with a national audience interested in directions
for the future of Indonesian language education. Small teams of presenters
working together on projects are also encouraged to register. Any queries,
please contact: Andrea Corston phone: (08) 8683 4751; acorston@internode.on.net
You are welcome to advertise Asia-related events in this
space. Send details to: fbeddie@infinite.net.au
Feedback
What would be useful for you? Human interest stories, profiles
of successful graduates of Asian studies, more news about what's on, moderated
discussions on topical issues? Send your ideas to fbeddie@infinite.net.au.
About the ASAA
The Asian Studies Association of Australia (ASAA) promotes
the study of Asian languages, societies, cultures, and politics in Australia,
supports teaching and research in Asian studies and works towards an understanding
of Asia in the community at large. It publishes the Asian Studies Review
journal and holds a biennial conference. ASAA and the Centre for Language
Studies at National University of Singapore also co-publish an annual supplementary
issue of the Centre's fully peer-reviewed electronic Foreign Language Teaching
Journal (e-FLT). See http://e-flt.nus.edu.sg
The ASAA believes there is an urgent need to develop a strategy to preserve,
renew and extend Australian expertise about Asia. It has called on the government
to show national leadership in the promotion of Australia’s Asia knowledge
and skills. See Maximizing Australia's Asia Knowledge Repositioning and
Renewal of a National Asset http://coombs.anu.edu.au/SpecialProj/ASAA/asia-knowledge-book-v70.pdf
Asian Currents is published by the
Asian Studies Association of Australia (ASAA). It is edited by Francesca Beddie.
The editorial board consists of Robert Cribb, ASAA President; Michele Ford,
ASAA Secretary; Mina Roces, ASAA Publications officer; and Lenore Lyons, ASAA
Council member.
